If what’s going on in Illinois is an indication of what’s ahead for American higher education overall, it doesn’t bode well.
The state’s universities and colleges are confronting a severe enrollment decline and mounting financial pressures, despite the state spending more per student than almost anywhere else in the country.
Illinois once symbolized access and innovation in learning. Now it is a bellwether for the financial and demographic headwinds reshaping U.S. colleges and universities. From Chicago’s creative institutions to its research powerhouses, Illinois is offering a preview of what’s likely coming for campuses across the country — fewer applicants as the pool of high school graduates shrinks, revenues decline, and doubts grow about the value and return on investment of a university degree.
Let’s start with Columbia College Chicago, one of the state’s most prominent arts and media schools, established in 1890. This fall, enrollment dropped to 4,461 students from 5,571 — a startling loss of more than 1,000 students in a single year. In 2013-14, total full-time enrollment of undergraduate students at the school stood at 8,720, nearly double the current level, and 9,312 if graduate students were included.
The college has promised to “stabilize enrollment” and “strengthen philanthropic engagement,” but those words cannot obscure a larger trend. Columbia’s decline mirrors a national one: Families are questioning the price of a private education, especially one that does not readily lead to employment upon graduation.
High school graduates can choose faster and cheaper paths to the workforce, while the pool of traditional college-age students continues to contract as the U.S. enters a much-anticipated demographic decline. Add to that a drop in international student enrollments (down an estimated 17% nationally this year), and what’s going on at Columbia is not a blip — it’s a warning shot.
Even the University of Chicago, a crown jewel of intellectualism in U.S. higher education that has produced dozens of Nobel Prize-winning economists, is feeling financial strain.
In the 1990s, the university decided to recruit more undergraduate students by creating a more attractive campus culture. Low interest rates and increased competition for students from other universities fueled spending. The school built new labs, academic buildings and state-of-the-art dormitories. The strategy worked — the undergraduate body ballooned to its current 7,600 from 3,500 in the mid-1990s while an acceptance rate that was once 60% or more narrowed to an exclusive 4% in the process.
But at what cost?
After running budget deficits for 14 consecutive years, the university cut $100 million in expenses this summer. Government reductions in federal funding haven’t helped, but the University of Chicago’s woes were building long before President Donald Trump came back into office. To address budget shortfalls, the school has decided to slow tenure-tracking hiring, restrain new construction and halt admissions for multiple Ph.D. programs for a year.
Despite this streamlining, tuition at the university remains an eye-popping $71,325 per year, with an all-in cost just below $100,000.
For a school that epitomizes prestige and credibility, this kind of retrenchment underscores a sobering truth: No institution is too elite to feel the pressure.
The international side of things tells a similar story. Illinois universities are seeing declines in enrollments from overseas students after several months of volatile visa policies and unwelcoming rhetoric from the Trump administration. Data from DePaul University, the University of Illinois Chicago and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign show a drop in the number of international graduate students, the Sun-Times reported.
The loss in international students erodes university finances and translates into less research and innovation. But perhaps more importantly, the reputation of the state’s public universities as hubs of innovation and collaboration will decline if international students pass up the U.S. for other study destinations that are safer and more affordable.
Percolating crises are everywhere. The American college degree — once the engine of social mobility — is being reassessed, not out of cynicism but out of economic necessity.
Illinois shows where the pressures are heading: fewer students, tighter budgets and a public skeptical of the value of a degree. States that adapt readily to this reality will fare better. Those that don’t will face the same hard choices Illinois is contending with now.
But there is a glimmer of hope. Community colleges in Illinois are experiencing yearly growth in enrollments due to a broad range of certifications and degrees in high-demand fields. The state’s network, the third-largest in the country, is providing students with what they want — an education that won’t require taking on debt and could lead directly to a job. In other words, a good deal.
Perhaps that’s a solid playbook for the rest of the sector to use when planning for the future.
Anna Esaki-Smith is co-founder of research firm Education Rethink and author of “Make College Your Superpower,” a book about getting value from a university degree. Follow her on Instagram or TikTok.
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