SPRINGFIELD, Ill. (NEXSTAR) — The Democratic primary race for Secretary of State is a “dead heat,” according to a generic poll sponsored by the campaign for Anna Valencia, the current City Clerk of Chicago.
A Global Strategy Group poll of 600 likely primary voters found 58% of people surveyed were still “undecided” with six months to go before the election. Valencia and former Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias tied at 13% each. Chicago Alderman David Moore came in last with 12%.
However, once the pollsters started introducing likely primary voters to the glowing parts of Valencia’s personal backstory, her poll numbers, unsurprisingly, shot up.
In the second round of questioning, pollsters tested out two different dynamic descriptions that praised Valencia as a “proven leader who understands the many challenges Illinois families face.”
After the candidate profiles were included, Valencia finished with 37%, Giannoulias with 19%, and Moore with 14%.
The pollsters also offered profiles of Giannoulias and Moore that were technically positive on paper, but they definitely weren’t written by their campaign managers. The profiles were generally more drab, muted, and far less likely to inspire a positive reaction, according to several experienced political consultants who reviewed the language. For example, a downstate voter might not be swayed to vote for Giannoulias when they hear he directed a New York investment bank, owns a string of upscale breakfast diners, and “is the Cook County Democratic Party nominee.”
A recent independent poll from Ogden and Fry didn’t use any of the subjective rhetorical descriptors to parse differences between the field of candidates. Instead, they just removed the option of “undecided,” and watched voters break sharply toward Giannoulias. In that December survey, Giannoulias finished with 49.6%, Valencia finished in a distant third with 26.9%, and Pat Dowell, a Chicago Alderman, finished with 13.4%.
That poll is outdated now that Dowell dropped out of the race, giving Valencia a defining edge as the only woman left in the race. Her team saw that as an opening to gain ground.
“Being a mom, being a city leader, being a woman elected, I think that our narrative and story shows that that’s what voters are looking for,” Valencia said in a Monday morning video call. “Hands down, when our story is out there, we win and win big.”
However, Valencia’s campaign may struggle to reach the public with that message unless they raise more funds in a hurry. At this stage in the race, the Giannoulias campaign has racked up far more endorsements with labor unions and party officials, and hauled in far more campaign cash. His coffers sit flush with more than $4 million in cash on hand, far surpassing Valencia’s $995,927. His campaign could have more than four times as many resources to promote his favorable attributes, and potentially highlight Valencia’s negatives.
The Valencia campaign’s push to promote her electability is likely one of the last positive stretches before the race turns negative. Reports started to surface last week about hundreds of emails on government servers that reference Valencia’s husband, his work as a lobbyist, and some of his clients.
“These emails pretty much are a lot about scheduling with my husband who’s making dinner,” Valencia said, though her government lawyers have so far denied their release.
“I think it’s unfortunate that my opponent, that Alexi’s team is playing the same Donald Trump playbook of, ‘Oh, about her emails,’” Valencia said. “It’s a clear tactic to distract from their own baggage and things they don’t want to talk about, like his failed bank, or, mismanagement of the college savings program as his time as treasurer, and so many other things that are going to be brought up along the way, not only in the primary, but in the general election.”
She pointed to the pitfalls of the Terry McAulliffe campaign in Virginia, and warned Illinois Democrats not to nominate a candidate who has already been beaten up in a statewide election. Giannoulias had President Barack Obama’s backing when he lost to Republican Mark Kirk in the 2010 race for the U.S. Senate.
“I do think that there’s a lot of baggage that he has, and some of those stories will follow him into the general election,” Valencia said. “We have to as a party put our best candidates forward, and we’re looking to the future. People are looking for next generation of leaders, and we’re looking for more women to run for office. We’ve never had a woman as our Illinois Secretary of State, who will be the first woman to be there, the first mom to be there, the first woman of color to be there. And I think it’s really important to our voters that they see themselves in that position, and that they’re represented in these positions.”
