There is no second place on Election Day. Winners govern, and losers complain on social media. Illinois Republicans have turned whining into an artform. While they are not wrong that decades of single-party Democratic and progressive rule have turned the Land of Lincoln into a late-night joke, they refuse to acknowledge their complicity in its demise.
If there were a motto that best describes Illinois GOP primary voters, it would be: “Let’s nominate the worst general election candidate possible!”
Illinois is a blue state only because of the population density in the collar counties, with the heaviest being Cook County and the city of Chicago. This is where the Illinois GOP must make inroads. The rest of Illinois, with a few exceptions, is bright red.
With 2026 upon us, the new year offers Illinois voters a fresh opportunity to change Springfield. Primary elections are March 17. But early voting begins Feb. 5. The bombardment of political ads will commence this week. And so will the Republican primary voter litmus test.
For many Republicans, a candidate’s anti-abortion rights street cred is a make-or-break issue. Don’t get me wrong; by no means am I downplaying the issue, especially for GOP faith-based voters. But those who hold opposing views, such as suburban women, outnumber those voters and are just as passionate. Illinois has rarely elected an anti-abortion rights statewide officeholder or U.S. senator this century, with the exception of Dan Rutherford for the nonideological treasurer’s office in 2010. Let that sink in.
The GOP primary also requires a “MAGA” litmus test. I’m not referring to supporting President Donald Trump. That should be a must for any GOP nominee. My concern is that any disagreement with the president is regarded as a mortal sin.
The catch-22 for Republicans is that the president’s endorsement will be highly advantageous in March. But the political reality is that Trump’s support for a candidate plays right into the hands of the Democrats’ campaign playbook.
Gov. JB Pritzker is praying for a repeat of 2022 when Democrats produced advertisements claiming state Sen. Darren Bailey, the eventual GOP gubernatorial nominee, was “too conservative” for Illinois. They also made sure every voter north of Interstate 80 knew he appeared with Trump at a campaign rally to receive his endorsement. Bailey lost by more than 12 points with 15.5% of the Chicago vote.
“We must vote our principles,” as I’ve always heard during my four decades of campaign and political consulting. And I could not agree more.
Principles do not mean closed-mindedness or tunnel vision. In politics, the goal has to always be winning or, at the very least, advance your cause.
Real and impactful change doesn’t happen in one election cycle. GOP primary voters ought to consider that the Democrats not only control the General Assembly; they also have a veto-proof supermajority. To be blunt, Republicans will continue to be powerless in Illinois until they can make inroads in the collar counties.
And that is the opportunity the Illinois GOP primary voter has this year.
There are no success stories or legislation that Pritzker and his party can run on.
“It’s the economy and our kids, stupid!” should be the Illinois GOP slogan in 2026.
Under Pritzker and Democratic rule, Illinois families endure among the highest property taxes and state and local taxes in the country. Working families pay the second highest gas taxes in the nation. Illinois students have less financial aid available to pay for college, as Democrats are providing taxpayer-funded college scholarships, stipends and other state-funded aid to students who are in the U.S. without legal premission.
Add the pathetic reality that Illinois is the very definition of unfriendliness for business development and job creation, and the only thing Pritzker and his accomplices can campaign on is the vilification of Trump, facts be damned.
It will not be easy for the GOP to overcome Pritzker’s billions available to self-fund his reelection campaign and those of his House and Senate minions. That’s why Illinois Republicans must embrace kitchen table issues. Even if Republicans don’t win in 2026, let’s promote the ideals of free markets, limited government and rewarding, not punishing, working families with onerous taxation.
Republicans would be wise to invoke the “Buckley Rule.”
William F. Buckley, who founded the National Review in 1955, championed the idea that Republicans should always “support the rightward most viable candidate.” This rule is often misquoted as claiming he said, “the rightward most electable candidate.” Buckley, unlike many of our friends on the left, would never have advocated voting for just the letter next to a name on a ballot. However, he understood that political change begins at the ballot box. If your candidate is unlikely to win, let him or her at least advance your cause and ideas.
The Buckley Rule was first applied to Barry Goldwater in 1964. Even though Goldwater was trounced, his ideas gained momentum and culminated in the election of Ronald Reagan for president in 1980, the golden age of Republicanism.
Illinois can do the same. But if Republican primary voters don’t learn from history, they are doomed to a future of defeat after defeat.
Paul Miller is a media and political consultant based in the northwest suburbs.
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