“Familiarity breeds contempt — and children.” So said famed humorist Mark Twain.
The issue of procreation is irrelevant when it comes to elections. But Gov. J.B. Pritzker is testing the “contempt” question in his run for a nearly unprecedented third term in 2026.
The only Illinois governor to be elected to more than two terms is Republican James Thompson, who served from 1977 to 1991.
Even “Big Jim” is a lesson for Pritzker. After landslide wins in 1976 and 1978, Thompson was perceived as a solid favorite in his November 1982 race against former Democratic U.S. Sen. Adlai Stevenson III. But after six years, voters weren’t as smitten with Big Jim as the pundits perceived. Thompson won, but only by 5,074 votes.
When Democrats sought a court-ordered recount, Thompson survived by a single vote. The majority-Democrat Illinois Supreme Court voted 4-3 to block a second vote count after Democratic Justice Seymour Simon jumped ship to join the three GOP justices.
So where does Pritzker stand?
He’s in good, bordering on great, shape, for very good reasons.
People are tiring of him in this solid Democratic state, but they’re far from exhausted. A public-approval poll conducted by Chicago’s Victory Research has Pritzker in plus territory.
The November poll of roughly 1,200 general-election voters puts his approval rating at 52.2 percent compared with a 40.9 percent disapproval rate. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.82 percentage points.
Pritkzer’s victory margins in 2018 over incumbent GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner and in 2022 over Republican opponent Darren Bailey were both 54-plus percent.
That leads to another Pritzker advantage: In politics, you can’t beat somebody with nobody.
Pritzker will be the Democratic nominee. But who will run for the GOP?
Republicans have a handful of candidates seeking their party’s nomination.
One — Bailey, a former state senator and farmer/businessman from downstate — has already lost big and would again. The Victory poll shows Pritzker holding a 54-34 percent margin.
One interesting GOP candidate is former businessman and Wirepoints analyst Ted Dabrowski. He has some big financial backers but little name recognition.
Running an issues-oriented campaign, he’s embracing the public education approach — first you win the argument, then you win the election — adopted by the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
That, of course, presumes a Dabrowski-type loses before winning.
There are other GOP candidates — a collection of no-names — competing for the party’s nomination. Like the GOP losers who’ve come before them, they would probably win less-populated downstate counties while losing big in Cook and the collar counties.
Pritzker’s final — and insurmountable — advantage is unlimited campaign cash drawn from his multibillion-dollar family fortune. There’s no amount of money he can’t spend.
So, from a political standpoint, everything is coming up roses for Pritzker.
But from a policy standpoint, the Victory poll tells a different story.
Illinois is a corrupt and financially failing state, and the voters know it.
The poll revealed that 59.5 percent of respondents said Illinois is on the wrong track. Pritzker, who signed the controversial SAFE-T Act law that ended cash bail, gets poor marks for addressing crime issues (crime: 34.1 percent good vs. 58.9 percent bad), taxes (32 percent good vs. 61.5 percent bad) and immigration (36.3 percent good vs. 57 percent bad.)
He gets much better marks on infrastructure, education and finance.
Barring unforeseen events, Pritzker will have to work hard to lose next November.
